2016 Media Forecast

Media spending in the U.S. is forecast to jump between 4 – 5% to $189 billion in 2016, which will be the largest percentage gain over the last four years. The Summer Olympics and Presidential elections will drive this growth pushing total ad spending to its highest level since 2007.

It has taken a long time to come back from the spending levels lost during the recession but we’ve finally arrived. There is still some economic caution, such as a strong dollar that hinders domestic manufacturing and a bad January on Wall Street, but overall momentum is good.

For the major media totals, digital will continue to take more dollars and TV will rebound from reduced spending in 2015.

2016 Spending
(billions)
2016 v. 2015
% Change
2015 v. 2014
% Change
TV $67.1 0.6% -0.4%
Internet $59.7 15.6% 18.2%
Newspaper $18.5 -7.0% -7.0%
Radio $17.6 0.0% 1.0%
Magazine $17.1 -1.8% -1.9%
Outdoor & Cinema $9.8 4.1% 4.1%

Source: ZenithOptimedia

You can see the dominance of two media this year; TV and Digital will make up 65 percent of all spending.

pie

It may surprise many that newspaper still represents 11% of all U.S. spending. While it may not be popular to say, the reality is that most media still has a role for certain situations.

Within internet advertising the rise of social and display has been notable and will become even more apparent in 2016. A review of eMarketer’s digital ad spending forecasts puts Search, Display (banners + video) and Paid Social at nearly equal levels nicely dividing internet spending into three roughly equal parts.

Specifically within paid social, Facebook will capture 65 percent of all social spending. Note to all Facebook and Twitter users, Ad Revenues per user on each network will be $61 and $32 respectively in 2016.

A look across to marketing services shows solid growth in Event Sponsorships and Public Relations with Direct Mail decreasing slightly. Total spending on marketing services is forecast to be $231 billion this year, which is about 25% larger than all advertising spending.

2016 Spending
(billions)
2016 v. 2015
% Change
2015 v. 2014
% Change
Sales Promotion $77.2 3.5% 3.0%
Telemarketing $56.2 3.0% 3.0%
Direct Mail $49.4 -0.8% 0.5%
Event Sponsorship $35.0 7.4% 8.0%
Directories $8.1 -0.6% -0.8%
Public Relations $5.0 7.4% 5.0%

Source: ZenithOptimedia

The biggest takeaway from this forecast is that marketers continue to invest across a range of media. Which is sensible because each business situation is different and every brand demands a unique look and tailored solutions. This cross-media philosophy is at the core of Campaign Planning, our brand planning process, so Drake Cooper looks forward to an exciting, dynamic and ever-changing year in media.

Key Sources:

Social Ad Network Ad Revenues Accelerate Worldwide

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Social-Network-Ad-Revenues-Accelerate-Worldwide/1013015

US Digital Display Ad Spending To Surpass Search Ad Spending in 2016

http://www.emarketer.com/Article/US-Digital-Display-Ad-Spending-Surpass-Search-Ad-Spending-2016/1013442?ecid=NL1001