Elections & Economics – A Second Look
Earlier this year, we wrote about how presidential elections have little impact on consumer spending. Another question that has been raised is: Will the presidential election affect U.S. financial markets?
Our answer in three words: It probably won’t. In the immediate term after a presidential election, there is no evidence that financial markets react drastically across the country.
A recent look by Quartz shows this well. Over the last six presidential elections, the overall difference in financial market performance 30 days before voting and then 30 after election day are unremarkable. While there are occasional moves in a particular industry in a certain year, the overall takeaway is that the way a market was performing on election day continued its overall trajectory 30 days after voting.
It’s important to keep a large footnote on 2008… That was the year of a market crisis already in progress and it didn’t matter who was at the top.
Breakdown By Market Over The Last Six Elections
The S&P 500
Some years are up, some are down, no consistency across winning political parties.
10-Year Treasury Futures
Take away 2008, and nearly no change.
Dollar and the British Pound
Nearly no change from election day to 30 days after.
As a company who works in aerospace, this category was particularly important to us. Basically what the market was on election day was where it was 30 days afterward.
In a completely different industry, we also work in jewelry retail, so Gold is of interest. Again, election day value landed in the same place 30 days after voting.
In the long-term who’s leading the country does, of course, affect financial markets as policies begin to refine and change. However, in the short term, there has been little change across US markets.
This year anything can happen—it certainly isn’t a “normal” election. But history tells us not to expect a significant difference immediately after voting.
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